MODEL VERDICT
Soleno Therapeutics, Inc. (SLNO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $52.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $52.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $52.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $52.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $52.63 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $149.81 | +183.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $40.37 | -23.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $7.26 | -86.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $34.95 | -33.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $44.48 | -15.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $36.00 | -31.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $33.14 | -37.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $34.01 | -35.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $7.08 | -86.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $29.73 | -43.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $69.43 | +31.3% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 114× | 125× | 136× (Current) | 147× | 158× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $46 | $51 | $55 | $60 | $64 |
| Conservative (7%) | $47 | $52 | $56 | $61 | $66 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $49 | $54 | $58 | $63 | $68 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $50 | $55 | $60 | $65 | $70 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 13.78 | 7.58 | 4.46 | 31.72 | 11.68 |
| P/B Ratio | 11.61 | 8.03 | 4.21 | 33.58 | 10.11 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates SLNO's fair value at $69.43 vs the current price of $52.87, implying +31.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $69.43 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $49.47 (P10) to $62.64 (P90), with a median of $55.99.
SLNO's current P/E of 135.6x compares to the industry median of 18.6x (3 peers in the group). This represents a +628.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
13 analysts cover SLNO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $80.00 (range: $53.00 — $107.00), implying +51.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SLNO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.