MODEL VERDICT
Lindsay Corporation (LNN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $111.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $108.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $108.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $107.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $110.17 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $120.64 | +8.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $152.15 | +36.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $190.08 | +70.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $113.39 | +1.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $159.19 | +42.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $172.28 | +54.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $140.98 | +26.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $154.49 | +38.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $123.70 | +10.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $189.73 | +69.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $107.20 | -4.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $207.65 | +86.0% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $86 | $100 | $114 | $129 | $143 |
| Conservative (9%) | $89 | $103 | $118 | $133 | $148 |
| Base Case (13.8%) | $93 | $108 | $123 | $139 | $154 |
| Bull Case (19%) | $96 | $113 | $129 | $145 | $161 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 91.35 | 27.42 | 17.39 | 479.95 | 171.56 |
| EV/EBIT | 38.14 | 19.86 | 12.16 | 149.33 | 49.50 |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.77 | 16.61 | 10.76 | 50.99 | 14.02 |
| P/FCF | 40.06 | 19.52 | 14.16 | 95.65 | 35.81 |
| P/FFO | 26.00 | 22.19 | 13.55 | 64.09 | 17.53 |
| P/TBV | 5.10 | 5.78 | 3.03 | 6.74 | 1.52 |
| P/AFFO | 30.14 | 26.01 | 19.60 | 47.38 | 10.51 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.76 | 3.87 | 2.42 | 4.93 | 1.01 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.39 | 2.33 | 1.90 | 2.94 | 0.40 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates LNN's fair value at $207.65 vs the current price of $111.67, implying +86.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $207.65 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $147.34 (P10) to $319.43 (P90), with a median of $211.53.
LNN's current P/E of 16.5x compares to the industry median of 28.0x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -41.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 91.3x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
15 analysts cover LNN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $128.00 (range: $128.00 — $128.00), implying +14.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (11), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that LNN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 45890.0% to approximately $624. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.