MODEL VERDICT
Open Lending Corporation (LPRO) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 53 industry peers | $0.96 | -42.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 51 bank peers | $0.95 | -43.1% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Forward P/E 50 analyst estimates | $0.95 | -43.1% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $5.78 | +246.0% | 100% | 63 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.44 | 19.38 | 6.35 | 47.28 | 16.24 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.83 | 14.60 | 6.24 | 31.41 | 10.67 |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.35 | 24.80 | 6.25 | 50.62 | 16.72 |
| P/FCF | 36.67 | 30.50 | 7.98 | 123.63 | 40.36 |
| P/FFO | 22.65 | 19.38 | 6.33 | 43.35 | 14.88 |
| P/TBV | 24.81 | 7.41 | 3.32 | 108.88 | 41.54 |
| P/AFFO | 22.73 | 19.39 | 6.34 | 43.57 | 14.96 |
| P/B Ratio | 24.70 | 7.07 | 3.32 | 108.88 | 41.59 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 14.91 | 13.18 | 4.27 | 29.62 | 10.13 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 9 valuation metrics, the model estimates LPRO's fair value at $5.78 vs the current price of $1.67, implying +246.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $5.78 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $1.32 (P10) to $16.26 (P90), with a median of $7.84.
LPRO's current P/E of -1.5x compares to the industry median of 11.7x (50 peers in the group). This represents a -112.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 23.4x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
12 analysts cover LPRO with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $15.00 (range: $7.00 — $38.00), implying +798.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for LPRO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.