MODEL VERDICT
Manchester United plc (MANU) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $18.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $17.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $17.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $17.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $16.65 | Below threshold | +5.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 27 industry peers | $11.99 | -33.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 23 industry peers | $2.79 | -84.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 23 industry peers | $0.12 | -99.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 29 industry peers | $3.64 | -79.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 29 industry peers | $4.16 | -76.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 23 industry peers | $2.79 | -84.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $11.57 | -35.8% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 26.81 | 22.28 | 17.06 | 56.39 | 13.50 |
| P/FFO | 34.36 | 23.25 | 15.33 | 78.38 | 22.65 |
| P/B Ratio | 17.15 | 14.18 | 7.83 | 31.97 | 10.35 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.06 | 5.13 | 4.12 | 6.52 | 0.80 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates MANU's fair value at $11.57 vs the current price of $18.01, implying -35.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $11.57 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.06 (P10) to $15.58 (P90), with a median of $10.75.
MANU's current P/E of -70.5x compares to the industry median of 30.1x (18 peers in the group). This represents a -334.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
10 analysts cover MANU with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $17.95 (range: $16.90 — $19.00), implying -0.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MANU.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.