MODEL VERDICT
MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $328.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $344.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $368.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $377.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $408.12 | Below threshold | -12.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 71 analyst estimates | $76.00 | -76.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 67 industry peers | $23.71 | -92.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 68 industry peers | $32.10 | -90.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $105.65 | -67.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $86.31 | -73.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 67 industry peers | $24.70 | -92.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $83.08 | -74.7% | 100% | 67 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 24.98 | 21.60 | 11.64 | 41.86 | 12.35 |
| P/B Ratio | 58.67 | 22.47 | 11.25 | 242.39 | 90.49 |
| P/S Ratio | 26.86 | 21.85 | 9.86 | 52.89 | 16.85 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates MDB's fair value at $83.08 vs the current price of $328.47, implying -74.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $83.08 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $51.76 (P10) to $102.38 (P90), with a median of $76.14.
MDB's current P/E of -189.9x compares to the industry median of 23.0x (45 peers in the group). This represents a -926.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
44 analysts cover MDB with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $437.20 (range: $375.00 — $500.00), implying +33.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (35), Hold (7), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MDB.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.