MODEL VERDICT
Snowflake Inc. (SNOW) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $168.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $172.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $182.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $182.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $219.09 | Below threshold | -19.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $36.01 | -78.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $64.82 | -61.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $60.32 | -64.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $47.94 | -71.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $45.90 | -72.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $64.90 | -61.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $146.67 | -12.9% | 100% | 67 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 170.86 | 79.89 | 50.73 | 530.89 | 203.34 |
| P/TBV | 32.87 | 16.78 | 8.61 | 98.33 | 34.41 |
| P/B Ratio | 17.01 | 15.68 | 8.54 | 28.15 | 8.22 |
| P/S Ratio | 82.17 | 30.71 | 12.13 | 294.10 | 107.58 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates SNOW's fair value at $146.67 vs the current price of $168.41, implying -12.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $146.67 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $60.20 (P10) to $275.98 (P90), with a median of $151.25.
SNOW's current P/E of -42.6x compares to the industry median of 26.2x (71 peers in the group). This represents a -262.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
49 analysts cover SNOW with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $251.60 (range: $177.00 — $325.00), implying +49.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (38), Hold (10), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SNOW.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.