MODEL VERDICT
Manulife Financial Corporation (MFC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $39.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $38.74 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $38.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $38.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $36.52 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $45.25 | +15.7% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $67.29 | +72.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $40.60 | +3.8% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $120.42 | +208.0% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $44.93 | +14.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 9 bank peers | $79.85 | +104.2% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $63.84 | +63.3% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $48.49 | +24.0% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $50.66 | +29.6% | 100% | 85 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $41 | $47 | $53 | $59 | $66 |
| Conservative (5%) | $42 | $48 | $55 | $61 | $68 |
| Base Case (0.9%) | $40 | $46 | $53 | $59 | $65 |
| Bull Case (1%) | $40 | $47 | $53 | $59 | $65 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.32 | 7.90 | 5.39 | 11.82 | 2.57 |
| EV/EBIT | 4.02 | 4.13 | 2.82 | 5.21 | 1.00 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.09 | 5.09 | 3.02 | 7.74 | 1.91 |
| P/FCF | 1.49 | 1.73 | 0.39 | 2.07 | 0.67 |
| P/FFO | 7.97 | 6.77 | 5.16 | 13.29 | 3.10 |
| P/TBV | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.76 | 1.31 | 0.19 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.79 | 0.79 | 0.63 | 1.04 | 0.14 |
| Div Yield | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.75 | 0.62 | 0.45 | 1.41 | 0.39 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates MFC's fair value at $50.66 vs the current price of $39.10, implying +29.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $50.66 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $44.38 (P10) to $53.75 (P90), with a median of $48.94.
MFC's current P/E of 17.3x compares to the industry median of 14.7x (12 peers in the group). This represents a +17.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.3x over 6 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
14 analysts cover MFC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $51.00 (range: $51.00 — $51.00), implying +30.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MFC trades at the 7780th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (8.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MFC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (4.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5610.0% to approximately $17. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.