MODEL VERDICT
MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $19.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $20.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $20.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $19.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $18.77 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $27.33 | +40.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $48.67 | +150.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $47.35 | +144.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $26.48 | +36.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $23.16 | +19.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $46.93 | +141.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $77.11 | +297.5% | 100% | 74 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.38 | 20.93 | 19.67 | 25.24 | 2.04 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.50 | 16.33 | 15.13 | 18.38 | 1.26 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.73 | 14.12 | 12.21 | 14.93 | 1.23 |
| P/FCF | 72.57 | 43.63 | 6.83 | 275.48 | 92.27 |
| P/FFO | 16.26 | 16.26 | 14.95 | 17.92 | 1.07 |
| P/TBV | 5.16 | 3.60 | 1.46 | 8.96 | 3.13 |
| P/AFFO | 26.67 | 27.41 | 23.72 | 29.39 | 2.45 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.41 | 2.77 | 0.72 | 3.57 | 1.09 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.13 | 2.27 | 0.97 | 3.00 | 0.78 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates MGPI's fair value at $77.11 vs the current price of $19.40, implying +297.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $77.11 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $27.51 (P10) to $123.21 (P90), with a median of $65.17.
MGPI's current P/E of -3.9x compares to the industry median of 28.7x (2 peers in the group). This represents a -113.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.4x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
14 analysts cover MGPI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $29.00 (range: $29.00 — $29.00), implying +49.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MGPI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.