MODEL VERDICT
Compass Diversified (CODI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $11.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $11.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $10.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $10.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $9.79 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $1.56 | -86.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $74.52 | +531.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $7.27 | -38.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $104.27 | +783.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $120.81 | +923.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $7.27 | -38.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $56.16 | +375.9% | 100% | 52 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 43× | 47× | 51× (Current) | 55× | 59× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
| Conservative (7%) | $11 | $12 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 34.59 | 37.18 | 28.71 | 37.90 | 5.11 |
| EV/EBITDA | 63.26 | 16.31 | 11.94 | 318.10 | 113.22 |
| P/FCF | 28.87 | 21.22 | 10.15 | 72.58 | 25.79 |
| P/FFO | 10.80 | 8.85 | 3.87 | 24.37 | 7.01 |
| P/AFFO | 11.60 | 11.86 | 4.25 | 16.95 | 4.73 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.60 | 1.39 | 0.81 | 3.28 | 0.82 |
| Div Yield | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.91 | 0.96 | 0.55 | 1.18 | 0.23 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates CODI's fair value at $56.16 vs the current price of $11.80, implying +375.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 52/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $56.16 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $23.94 (P10) to $214.90 (P90), with a median of $77.38.
CODI's current P/E of 51.3x compares to the industry median of 31.6x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +62.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
14 analysts cover CODI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $15.00 (range: $15.00 — $15.00), implying +27.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 52/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CODI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.