MODEL VERDICT
McGraw Hill, Inc. (MH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $11.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $12.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $14.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $14.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $13.16 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $21.61 | +83.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $12.54 | +6.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $30.32 | +157.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $2.46 | -79.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $12.81 | +8.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $14.11 | +19.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $28.87 | +145.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $16.80 | +42.8% | 100% | 56 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates MH's fair value at $16.80 vs the current price of $11.77, implying +42.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 56/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $16.80 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $14.29 (P10) to $19.91 (P90), with a median of $17.06.
MH's current P/E of -26.2x compares to the industry median of 16.8x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -255.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
7 analysts cover MH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $19.60 (range: $17.00 — $22.00), implying +66.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 56/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (22), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MH.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.