MODEL VERDICT
MIAMI INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS, INC. (MIAX) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $42.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $40.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $42.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $40.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $42.33 | Below threshold | -2.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $34.02 | -20.1% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 43 industry peers | $16.10 | -62.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 40 bank peers | $8.98 | -78.9% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 37 industry peers | $34.74 | -18.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 35 analyst estimates | $20.35 | -52.2% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $22.06 | -48.2% | 100% | 62 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 30× | 33× (Current) | 36× | 39× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $36 | $40 | $44 | $48 | $52 |
| Conservative (7%) | $37 | $41 | $45 | $49 | $54 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $38 | $43 | $47 | $51 | $55 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $40 | $44 | $48 | $53 | $57 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates MIAX's fair value at $22.06 vs the current price of $42.60, implying -48.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 62/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $22.06 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $17.76 (P10) to $28.49 (P90), with a median of $22.91.
MIAX's current P/E of 33.0x compares to the industry median of 26.4x (36 peers in the group). This represents a +25.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Premium.
5 analysts cover MIAX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $50.00 (range: $48.00 — $52.00), implying +17.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 62/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for MIAX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.