MODEL VERDICT
Movado Group, Inc. (MOV)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $27.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $27.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $28.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $26.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $26.74 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $15.95 | -41.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $34.70 | +26.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $19.29 | -29.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $37.27 | +35.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $38.11 | +38.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $63.72 | +132.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $46.77 | +70.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $22.38 | -18.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $19.18 | -30.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $37.36 | +36.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $28.93 | +5.4% | 100% | 80 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 19× | 21× | 23× (Current) | 25× | 27× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $23 | $26 | $28 | $30 | $33 |
| Conservative (7%) | $24 | $26 | $29 | $31 | $34 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $24 | $27 | $30 | $32 | $35 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $25 | $28 | $31 | $33 | $36 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 13.87 | 9.32 | 7.32 | 25.46 | 8.26 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.94 | 5.38 | 4.32 | 15.03 | 4.78 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.31 | 5.90 | 4.03 | 30.18 | 9.40 |
| P/FCF | 12.36 | 13.17 | 6.12 | 20.27 | 5.45 |
| P/FFO | 10.41 | 7.62 | 6.55 | 17.26 | 5.17 |
| P/TBV | 1.36 | 1.22 | 0.87 | 2.35 | 0.51 |
| P/AFFO | 12.61 | 8.72 | 7.06 | 23.65 | 7.17 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.28 | 1.21 | 0.73 | 2.26 | 0.53 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.96 | 0.92 | 0.55 | 1.92 | 0.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates MOV's fair value at $28.93 vs the current price of $27.45, implying +5.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $28.93 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $24.57 (P10) to $33.48 (P90), with a median of $28.90.
MOV's current P/E of 23.5x compares to the industry median of 16.5x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +42.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 13.9x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
13 analysts cover MOV with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $30.00 (range: $30.00 — $30.00), implying +9.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: MOV trades at the 2500th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (13.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MOV's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.0σ, meaning margins are 0.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (4.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3520.0% to approximately $18. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.