MODEL VERDICT
Mettler-Toledo International Inc. (MTD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $1267.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $1282.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $1340.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $1315.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $1325.01 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $878.48 | -30.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $1022.07 | -19.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $1142.13 | -9.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $1133.30 | -10.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $1215.60 | -4.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $1176.72 | -7.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $1786.12 | +41.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $780.97 | -38.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $776.28 | -38.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $1147.58 | -9.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $1122.62 | -11.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $1265.94 | -0.1% | 100% | 91 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 28× | 30× (Current) | 32× | 34× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $1145 | $1233 | $1321 | $1409 | $1497 |
| Conservative (7%) | $1176 | $1266 | $1356 | $1447 | $1537 |
| Base Case (11.1%) | $1218 | $1312 | $1406 | $1499 | $1593 |
| Bull Case (15%) | $1261 | $1358 | $1455 | $1552 | $1649 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 38.20 | 35.30 | 30.09 | 51.78 | 7.76 |
| EV/EBIT | 31.26 | 28.89 | 25.59 | 41.86 | 5.87 |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.92 | 25.57 | 22.52 | 37.65 | 5.42 |
| P/FCF | 38.85 | 39.15 | 30.18 | 49.69 | 7.47 |
| P/FFO | 33.31 | 30.49 | 26.45 | 45.39 | 6.74 |
| P/AFFO | 37.99 | 35.86 | 29.57 | 51.74 | 7.89 |
| P/B Ratio | 425.35 | 164.91 | 47.08 | 1324.49 | 604.50 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.93 | 7.14 | 6.58 | 10.71 | 1.51 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates MTD's fair value at $1265.94 vs the current price of $1267.07, implying -0.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $1265.94 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $1107.49 (P10) to $1272.80 (P90), with a median of $1188.81.
MTD's current P/E of 30.0x compares to the industry median of 27.1x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +10.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 38.2x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
19 analysts cover MTD with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $1490.83 (range: $1445.00 — $1600.00), implying +17.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (11), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that MTD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (20.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2280.0% to approximately $1556. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.