MODEL VERDICT
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $14.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $13.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $14.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $14.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $13.48 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $13.04 | -12.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $14.12 | -4.7% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 11 bank peers | $14.12 | -4.7% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $68.67 | +363.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $13.03 | -12.1% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $14.11 | -4.8% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $19.45 | +31.3% | 100% | 68 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 7× | 9× | 11× (Current) | 13× | 15× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (10%) | $10 | $13 | $16 | $19 | $21 |
| Conservative (16%) | $11 | $14 | $17 | $20 | $23 |
| Base Case (24.8%) | $11 | $15 | $18 | $21 | $24 |
| Bull Case (33%) | $12 | $16 | $19 | $23 | $26 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates NCDL's fair value at $19.45 vs the current price of $14.82, implying +31.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 68/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $19.45 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13.87 (P10) to $33.87 (P90), with a median of $19.64.
NCDL's current P/E of 11.4x compares to the industry median of 10.0x (12 peers in the group). This represents a +13.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
5 analysts cover NCDL with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $15.50 (range: $15.50 — $15.50), implying +4.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 68/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NCDL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (46.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4240.0% to approximately $21. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.