MODEL VERDICT
The New York Times Company (NYT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $78.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $80.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $79.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $81.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $79.01 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $78.93 | +0.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $35.27 | -55.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $60.42 | -23.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $38.73 | -50.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $28.06 | -64.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $51.99 | -34.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $25.77 | -67.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $27.71 | -64.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $22.01 | -72.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $56.17 | -28.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $38.96 | -50.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $58.67 | -25.5% | 100% | 81 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 36× | 40× | 44× (Current) | 48× | 52× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $68 | $75 | $83 | $90 | $98 |
| Conservative (10%) | $70 | $78 | $86 | $94 | $102 |
| Base Case (16.1%) | $74 | $82 | $90 | $99 | $107 |
| Bull Case (22%) | $78 | $86 | $95 | $103 | $112 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 40.97 | 34.99 | 29.41 | 86.28 | 20.28 |
| EV/EBIT | 30.82 | 25.92 | 18.32 | 72.88 | 18.83 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.77 | 21.18 | 14.98 | 34.28 | 6.17 |
| P/FCF | 35.16 | 34.72 | 22.63 | 47.71 | 9.85 |
| P/FFO | 27.55 | 24.76 | 20.15 | 50.93 | 10.73 |
| P/TBV | 6.22 | 6.21 | 4.12 | 7.63 | 1.26 |
| P/AFFO | 34.05 | 32.26 | 23.64 | 63.80 | 13.85 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.64 | 4.59 | 3.39 | 6.55 | 1.06 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.28 | 3.34 | 2.13 | 4.88 | 0.94 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates NYT's fair value at $58.67 vs the current price of $78.72, implying -25.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $58.67 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $48.88 (P10) to $68.54 (P90), with a median of $58.76.
NYT's current P/E of 44.5x compares to the industry median of 34.1x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +30.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 41.0x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
16 analysts cover NYT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $67.00 (range: $60.00 — $75.00), implying -14.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (10), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 12.3% is 3.8 percentage points above the 7-year average (8.5%), with a Z-score of +1.8σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$50. (2) Multiple compression: NYT trades at the 8000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (41.0×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that NYT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.8σ, meaning margins are 1.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (8.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3610.0% to approximately $50. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.