MODEL VERDICT
Quanex Building Products Corporation (NX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $19.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $20.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $20.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $19.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $19.92 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $40.71 | +104.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $49.49 | +148.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $36.68 | +84.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $124.22 | +523.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $132.20 | +563.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $45.27 | +127.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $67.24 | +237.4% | 100% | 48 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.32 | 14.58 | 8.90 | 26.93 | 6.97 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.08 | 10.85 | 7.29 | 26.86 | 7.69 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.24 | 7.11 | 5.41 | 14.62 | 3.25 |
| P/FCF | 11.18 | 9.69 | 6.94 | 17.17 | 3.83 |
| P/FFO | 39.60 | 8.41 | 6.12 | 197.11 | 77.17 |
| P/TBV | 4.89 | 4.41 | 3.00 | 7.28 | 1.82 |
| P/AFFO | 11.72 | 11.48 | 8.25 | 15.78 | 2.71 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.59 | 1.71 | 0.88 | 2.05 | 0.47 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.70 | 0.70 | 0.39 | 0.89 | 0.17 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates NX's fair value at $67.24 vs the current price of $19.93, implying +237.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 48/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $67.24 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $43.04 (P10) to $55.07 (P90), with a median of $48.97.
NX's current P/E of -3.7x compares to the industry median of 22.8x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -116.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.3x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
10 analysts cover NX with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 48/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for NX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.