MODEL VERDICT
Orthofix Medical Inc. (OFIX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $11.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $12.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $12.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $12.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $12.38 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $15.63 | +31.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $14.26 | +19.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $16.56 | +39.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $18.88 | +58.5% | 100% | 61 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 38.74 | 24.67 | 20.39 | 85.22 | 31.12 |
| P/FCF | 36.19 | 18.13 | 14.58 | 75.85 | 34.40 |
| P/FFO | 19405.78 | 33.48 | 22.65 | 58161.21 | 33563.19 |
| P/TBV | 3.03 | 3.18 | 1.73 | 4.31 | 0.96 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.65 | 1.34 | 0.83 | 2.66 | 0.66 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.28 | 1.11 | 0.66 | 2.05 | 0.58 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 7 valuation metrics, the model estimates OFIX's fair value at $18.88 vs the current price of $11.91, implying +58.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 61/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $18.88 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $10.87 (P10) to $30.51 (P90), with a median of $19.69.
OFIX's current P/E of -5.2x compares to the industry median of 26.0x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -120.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
17 analysts cover OFIX with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $18.00 (range: $18.00 — $18.00), implying +51.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 61/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for OFIX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.