MODEL VERDICT
Alphatec Holdings, Inc. (ATEC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $10.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $10.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $11.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $11.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $10.90 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $3.96 | -62.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $0.30 | -97.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $0.95 | -90.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $17.33 | +66.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $15.51 | +48.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $0.28 | -97.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $4.90 | -53.0% | 100% | 61 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 18.66 | 11.32 | 8.19 | 36.48 | 15.51 |
| P/B Ratio | 32.44 | 13.11 | 5.13 | 139.10 | 52.47 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.03 | 3.80 | 2.15 | 6.72 | 1.40 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates ATEC's fair value at $4.90 vs the current price of $10.43, implying -53.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 61/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $4.90 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.79 (P10) to $8.67 (P90), with a median of $7.21.
ATEC's current P/E of -10.9x compares to the industry median of 23.5x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -146.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
16 analysts cover ATEC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $25.00 (range: $23.00 — $27.00), implying +139.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (2), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 61/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ATEC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.