MODEL VERDICT
Oil States International, Inc. (OIS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $11.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $11.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $10.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $10.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $11.55 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $13.08 | +16.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $7.85 | -30.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $24.85 | +121.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $27.30 | +143.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $18.72 | +66.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $15.94 | +41.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $24.43 | +117.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $14.41 | +28.3% | 100% | 72 | UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 177.84 | 91.77 | 21.38 | 420.38 | 212.97 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.37 | 9.58 | 6.50 | 17.14 | 4.03 |
| P/FCF | 18.37 | 14.23 | 2.50 | 37.41 | 15.21 |
| P/FFO | 9.72 | 7.59 | 5.82 | 17.89 | 5.52 |
| P/TBV | 0.95 | 0.84 | 0.63 | 1.89 | 0.44 |
| P/AFFO | 25.01 | 12.25 | 9.97 | 52.80 | 24.10 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.58 | 0.60 | 0.40 | 0.79 | 0.15 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.59 | 0.55 | 0.45 | 0.95 | 0.17 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates OIS's fair value at $14.41 vs the current price of $11.23, implying +28.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 72/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $14.41 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13.41 (P10) to $18.46 (P90), with a median of $15.77.
OIS's current P/E of -6.0x compares to the industry median of 30.8x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -119.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
32 analysts cover OIS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $14.00 (range: $13.00 — $15.00), implying +24.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (22), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 72/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for OIS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.