MODEL VERDICT
OneStream, Inc. Class A Common Stock (OS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $23.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $23.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $23.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $23.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $23.62 | Below threshold | -0.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $5.55 | -76.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $10.25 | -56.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $13.48 | -42.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $15.22 | -35.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $11.09 | -53.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $10.27 | -56.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $8.59 | -63.6% | 100% | 53 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates OS's fair value at $8.59 vs the current price of $23.59, implying -63.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 53/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $8.59 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $7.06 (P10) to $11.65 (P90), with a median of $9.34.
OS's current P/E of -84.3x compares to the industry median of 26.2x (71 peers in the group). This represents a -421.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
21 analysts cover OS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $24.08 (range: $24.00 — $25.00), implying +2.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (13), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 53/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for OS.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.