MODEL VERDICT
Oxford Industries, Inc. (OXM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $42.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $44.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $44.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $44.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $42.80 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $32.70 | -23.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $16.50 | -61.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $93.21 | +119.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $58.80 | +38.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $81.19 | +90.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $41.30 | -2.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $25.85 | -39.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $95.89 | +125.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $81.14 | +90.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $93.21 | +119.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $58.72 | +38.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $50.55 | +18.9% | 100% | 90 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $24 | $30 | $42 | $54 | $67 |
| Conservative (5%) | $25 | $31 | $43 | $55 | $68 |
| Base Case (7.7%) | $25 | $32 | $44 | $57 | $70 |
| Bull Case (10%) | $26 | $32 | $45 | $58 | $71 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.41 | 15.73 | 9.14 | 26.18 | 5.93 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.71 | 13.71 | 8.78 | 23.72 | 5.14 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.93 | 9.21 | 7.21 | 13.24 | 2.16 |
| P/FCF | 16.39 | 19.19 | 9.35 | 20.85 | 4.86 |
| P/FFO | 10.05 | 10.50 | 7.10 | 12.75 | 2.23 |
| P/TBV | 5.58 | 5.08 | 3.70 | 9.97 | 2.05 |
| P/AFFO | 22.36 | 17.28 | 9.09 | 46.85 | 14.22 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.65 | 2.68 | 2.00 | 3.37 | 0.42 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.15 | 1.08 | 0.82 | 1.50 | 0.24 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates OXM's fair value at $50.55 vs the current price of $42.53, implying +18.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 90/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $50.55 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $46.09 (P10) to $63.10 (P90), with a median of $54.43.
OXM's current P/E of 7.2x compares to the industry median of 15.9x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -54.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.4x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
21 analysts cover OXM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $34.67 (range: $32.00 — $36.00), implying -18.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 90/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for OXM.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.