MODEL VERDICT
PCB Bancorp (PCB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $24.67 | CURRENT | — |
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $24.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $23.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $24.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $24.14 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $36.61 | +48.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 7 industry peers | $31.98 | +29.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 7 bank peers | $38.34 | +55.4% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $29.93 | +21.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $36.63 | +48.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $30.11 | +22.1% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $32.43 | +31.4% | 100% | 91 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $17 | $22 | $28 | $33 | $39 |
| Conservative (13%) | $17 | $23 | $29 | $35 | $41 |
| Base Case (19.9%) | $19 | $25 | $31 | $37 | $43 |
| Bull Case (27%) | $20 | $26 | $33 | $39 | $46 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.43 | 8.69 | 7.63 | 11.63 | 1.61 |
| EV/EBIT | 3.52 | 2.96 | 1.91 | 6.78 | 1.71 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.29 | 2.75 | 1.74 | 6.78 | 1.75 |
| P/FCF | 8.25 | 8.91 | 4.28 | 12.05 | 3.01 |
| P/FFO | 8.32 | 7.83 | 6.88 | 9.97 | 1.25 |
| P/TBV | 0.92 | 0.80 | 0.67 | 1.31 | 0.26 |
| P/AFFO | 9.00 | 8.39 | 7.78 | 11.27 | 1.44 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.91 | 0.79 | 0.67 | 1.31 | 0.25 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.09 | 1.71 | 1.48 | 3.35 | 0.71 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates PCB's fair value at $32.43 vs the current price of $24.67, implying +31.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $32.43 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $28.23 (P10) to $34.09 (P90), with a median of $31.09.
PCB's current P/E of 9.6x compares to the industry median of 14.2x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -32.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.4x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
5 analysts cover PCB with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $26.00 (range: $26.00 — $26.00), implying +5.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: PCB trades at the 1260th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (9.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PCB's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (22.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2610.0% to approximately $31. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.