MODEL VERDICT
Pacira BioSciences, Inc. (PCRX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $24.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $24.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $24.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $23.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $23.79 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $35.75 | +46.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $25.16 | +2.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $4.60 | -81.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $43.15 | +76.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $3.85 | -84.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $55.16 | +125.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $66.97 | +174.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $75.26 | +207.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $4.52 | -81.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $40.86 | +67.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $46.56 | +90.5% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 129× | 141× | 153× (Current) | 165× | 177× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $21 | $23 | $25 | $27 | $29 |
| Conservative (5%) | $22 | $24 | $26 | $28 | $30 |
| Base Case (-45.5%) | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 |
| Bull Case (-61%) | $8 | $9 | $9 | $10 | $11 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 79.32 | 65.40 | 17.97 | 161.75 | 58.39 |
| EV/EBIT | 71.89 | 51.13 | 27.67 | 192.81 | 60.92 |
| EV/EBITDA | 59.32 | 27.76 | 12.27 | 227.80 | 77.34 |
| P/FCF | 24.82 | 15.60 | 4.87 | 66.63 | 21.52 |
| P/FFO | 52.99 | 16.26 | 11.89 | 219.69 | 82.25 |
| P/TBV | 9.67 | 7.01 | 2.47 | 25.23 | 8.38 |
| P/AFFO | 37.25 | 20.48 | 14.09 | 111.33 | 41.55 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.92 | 2.32 | 1.12 | 5.30 | 1.53 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.39 | 2.69 | 1.24 | 6.08 | 1.83 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates PCRX's fair value at $46.56 vs the current price of $24.44, implying +90.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $46.56 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $30.09 (P10) to $75.91 (P90), with a median of $48.03.
PCRX's current P/E of 152.8x compares to the industry median of 28.7x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +431.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 79.3x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
36 analysts cover PCRX with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $29.50 (range: $27.00 — $32.00), implying +20.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (17), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: PCRX trades at the 9580th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (79.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PCRX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (5.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 16800.0% to approximately $65. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.