MODEL VERDICT
Cousins Properties Incorporated (CUZ)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $25.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $24.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $24.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $23.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $22.88 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 8 REIT peers | $20.53 | -20.1% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 3 REIT peers | $16.67 | -35.1% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $25.92 | +0.9% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 8 industry peers | $27.31 | +6.3% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $24.37 | -5.1% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $5.08 | -80.2% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $14.89 | -42.0% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $13.58 | -47.1% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $15.24 | -40.7% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $23.27 | -9.4% | 100% | 83 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 89× | 98× | 107× (Current) | 116× | 125× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $22 | $24 | $26 | $28 | $31 |
| Conservative (5%) | $22 | $25 | $27 | $29 | $32 |
| Base Case (-27.0%) | $16 | $17 | $19 | $20 | $22 |
| Bull Case (-37%) | $14 | $15 | $16 | $18 | $19 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 53.96 | 44.27 | 13.60 | 107.42 | 36.92 |
| EV/EBIT | 32.27 | 32.79 | 23.93 | 46.48 | 8.32 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.55 | 13.01 | 12.25 | 19.37 | 2.89 |
| P/FCF | 45.58 | 31.99 | 14.18 | 165.94 | 54.07 |
| P/FFO | 10.50 | 9.54 | 8.23 | 14.91 | 2.20 |
| P/TBV | 1.06 | 1.00 | 0.83 | 1.35 | 0.21 |
| P/AFFO | 28.96 | 30.55 | 23.06 | 31.66 | 4.01 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.02 | 0.97 | 0.81 | 1.30 | 0.19 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.04 | 5.51 | 4.38 | 8.14 | 1.56 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CUZ's fair value at $23.27 vs the current price of $25.69, implying -9.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $23.27 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $21.69 (P10) to $26.79 (P90), with a median of $23.99.
CUZ's current P/E of 107.0x compares to the industry median of 21.2x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +405.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 54.0x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
16 analysts cover CUZ with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $29.50 (range: $27.00 — $34.00), implying +14.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CUZ trades at the 9230th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (54.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CUZ's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (17.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 23970.0% to approximately $87. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.