MODEL VERDICT
SL Green Realty Corp. (SLG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $42.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $42.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $43.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $41.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $38.42 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 8 REIT peers | $16.25 | -62.1% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $18.07 | -57.8% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $55.58 | +29.7% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $44.46 | +3.8% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $31.58 | -26.3% | 100% | 69 | OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 229.45 | 21.16 | 11.37 | 864.12 | 423.19 |
| EV/EBIT | 230.73 | 70.76 | 36.89 | 1079.80 | 416.24 |
| EV/EBITDA | 17.76 | 15.64 | 11.82 | 26.36 | 5.20 |
| P/FCF | 23.10 | 19.69 | 8.30 | 56.33 | 17.00 |
| P/FFO | 13.83 | 15.45 | 6.64 | 19.30 | 5.48 |
| P/TBV | 0.86 | 0.84 | 0.47 | 1.29 | 0.26 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.85 | 0.84 | 0.45 | 1.28 | 0.26 |
| Div Yield | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.75 | 4.48 | 2.66 | 6.62 | 1.65 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates SLG's fair value at $31.58 vs the current price of $42.85, implying -26.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $31.58 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $24.00 (P10) to $41.08 (P90), with a median of $31.84.
SLG's current P/E of -26.9x compares to the industry median of 24.4x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -210.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 229.5x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
31 analysts cover SLG with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $50.46 (range: $37.00 — $70.00), implying +17.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (18), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SLG.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.