MODEL VERDICT
Planet Fitness, Inc. (PLNT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $65.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $69.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $72.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $72.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $70.40 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $109.18 | +67.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $52.83 | -19.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $67.93 | +3.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $36.03 | -44.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $51.30 | -21.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $17.64 | -73.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $14.56 | -77.7% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $12.24 | -81.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $27.43 | -58.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $65.30 | -0.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $36.15 | -44.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $88.07 | +34.7% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 30× | 33× (Current) | 36× | 39× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $56 | $62 | $68 | $74 | $80 |
| Conservative (5%) | $57 | $63 | $69 | $76 | $82 |
| Base Case (7.2%) | $58 | $64 | $71 | $77 | $84 |
| Bull Case (10%) | $59 | $66 | $72 | $79 | $86 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 74.24 | 53.29 | 45.06 | 177.61 | 51.16 |
| EV/EBIT | 48.43 | 32.76 | 28.25 | 114.37 | 32.12 |
| EV/EBITDA | 32.99 | 25.42 | 19.67 | 68.06 | 17.32 |
| P/FCF | 49.26 | 47.81 | 32.01 | 66.78 | 11.63 |
| P/FFO | 55.13 | 38.02 | 21.61 | 160.50 | 49.32 |
| P/AFFO | 89.77 | 87.66 | 40.98 | 147.56 | 47.18 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.38 | 8.21 | 5.80 | 15.33 | 3.47 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates PLNT's fair value at $88.07 vs the current price of $65.38, implying +34.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $88.07 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $71.14 (P10) to $108.18 (P90), with a median of $89.00.
PLNT's current P/E of 32.7x compares to the industry median of 34.0x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -3.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 74.2x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
26 analysts cover PLNT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $119.17 (range: $85.00 — $175.00), implying +82.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (19), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PLNT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (26.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 28320.0% to approximately $251. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.