MODEL VERDICT
Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. (LTH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $26.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $27.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $28.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $27.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $27.95 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $37.64 | +41.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $37.02 | +38.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $50.21 | +88.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $22.41 | -16.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $32.34 | +21.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $22.72 | -14.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $47.61 | +78.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $41.89 | +57.1% | 100% | 57 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $21 | $24 | $28 | $31 | $35 |
| Conservative (7%) | $21 | $25 | $28 | $32 | $35 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $22 | $26 | $29 | $33 | $37 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $23 | $26 | $30 | $34 | $38 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 28.89 | 29.89 | 16.01 | 40.76 | 12.40 |
| EV/EBIT | 32.11 | 28.32 | 14.62 | 57.18 | 18.23 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.67 | 14.62 | 10.83 | 18.63 | 3.28 |
| P/FFO | 9.89 | 9.90 | 8.95 | 10.84 | 0.81 |
| P/TBV | 3.82 | 3.63 | 3.23 | 4.86 | 0.63 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.55 | 1.59 | 1.09 | 1.92 | 0.33 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.79 | 1.78 | 1.27 | 2.52 | 0.50 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates LTH's fair value at $41.89 vs the current price of $26.67, implying +57.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 57/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $41.89 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $34.29 (P10) to $45.63 (P90), with a median of $39.84.
LTH's current P/E of 16.1x compares to the industry median of 30.2x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -46.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 28.9x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
12 analysts cover LTH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $41.67 (range: $40.00 — $43.00), implying +56.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 57/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (22), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for LTH.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.