MODEL VERDICT
Pursuit Attractions and Hospitality, Inc. (PRSU)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $42.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $41.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $41.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $41.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $41.21 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $27.16 | -35.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $31.25 | -26.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $16.30 | -61.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $5.40 | -87.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $28.44 | -32.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $1.49 | -96.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $34.66 | -17.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $20.71 | -50.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $15.78 | -62.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $4.98 | -88.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $21.33 | -49.5% | 100% | 65 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 40× | 44× | 48× (Current) | 52× | 56× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $37 | $40 | $44 | $48 | $51 |
| Conservative (7%) | $37 | $41 | $45 | $49 | $52 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $39 | $43 | $46 | $50 | $54 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $40 | $44 | $48 | $52 | $56 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates PRSU's fair value at $21.33 vs the current price of $42.22, implying -49.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 65/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $21.33 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $17.93 (P10) to $23.70 (P90), with a median of $20.80.
PRSU's current P/E of 48.0x compares to the industry median of 18.5x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +159.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
3 analysts cover PRSU with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $46.00 (range: $44.00 — $48.00), implying +9.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 65/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PRSU.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.