MODEL VERDICT
QuinStreet, Inc. (QNST)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $13.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $13.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $12.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $12.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $11.98 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $17.69 | +35.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $11.25 | -13.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $1.63 | -87.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $17.61 | +35.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $3.34 | -74.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $21.06 | +61.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $53.04 | +306.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $46.27 | +254.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $1.57 | -88.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $17.70 | +35.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $19.34 | +48.3% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 136× | 149× | 162× (Current) | 175× | 188× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 |
| Conservative (5%) | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 | $16 |
| Base Case (-25.0%) | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 | $11 |
| Bull Case (-34%) | $7 | $8 | $9 | $9 | $10 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 74.10 | 52.68 | 12.97 | 178.07 | 72.29 |
| EV/EBIT | 68.60 | 60.59 | 29.42 | 123.80 | 39.99 |
| EV/EBITDA | 42.51 | 37.82 | 24.33 | 61.36 | 16.91 |
| P/FCF | 51.22 | 25.20 | 10.10 | 189.35 | 68.22 |
| P/FFO | 35.40 | 28.68 | 11.30 | 73.08 | 23.24 |
| P/TBV | 10.49 | 8.49 | 6.77 | 23.57 | 5.86 |
| P/AFFO | 72.17 | 30.87 | 12.03 | 247.07 | 98.36 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.79 | 3.43 | 2.73 | 5.84 | 1.06 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.60 | 1.73 | 0.77 | 2.33 | 0.54 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates QNST's fair value at $19.34 vs the current price of $13.04, implying +48.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $19.34 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $14.82 (P10) to $30.27 (P90), with a median of $20.93.
QNST's current P/E of 161.6x compares to the industry median of 20.3x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +697.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 74.1x over 4 years. Signal: High Premium.
13 analysts cover QNST with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $15.00 (range: $15.00 — $15.00), implying +15.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (4), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: QNST trades at the 8180th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (74.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that QNST's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (0.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9530.0% to approximately $1. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.