MODEL VERDICT
LendingTree, Inc. (TREE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $38.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $48.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $47.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $45.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $41.38 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $282.28 | +627.3% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $58.05 | +49.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $342.15 | +781.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $75.60 | +94.8% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $234.90 | +505.3% | 100% | 69 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 6× | 8× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $45 | $45 | $45 | $67 | $90 |
| Conservative (7%) | $46 | $46 | $46 | $69 | $92 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $47 | $47 | $47 | $71 | $95 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $49 | $49 | $49 | $73 | $98 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 47.20 | 24.28 | 4.92 | 112.39 | 57.28 |
| EV/EBIT | 1963.86 | 92.55 | 13.41 | 9588.96 | 4262.76 |
| EV/EBITDA | 39.07 | 36.12 | 10.61 | 70.16 | 25.63 |
| P/FCF | 15.44 | 11.19 | 7.13 | 35.81 | 10.76 |
| P/FFO | 64.30 | 32.85 | 4.32 | 187.19 | 84.60 |
| P/AFFO | 30.55 | 17.73 | 4.65 | 69.28 | 34.17 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.19 | 3.75 | 1.31 | 11.03 | 3.72 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.65 | 0.67 | 0.28 | 4.01 | 1.63 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates TREE's fair value at $234.90 vs the current price of $38.81, implying +505.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $234.90 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $132.09 (P10) to $427.81 (P90), with a median of $258.92.
TREE's current P/E of 3.6x compares to the industry median of 26.2x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -86.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 47.2x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
23 analysts cover TREE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $69.00 (range: $60.00 — $78.00), implying +77.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (19), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TREE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.