MODEL VERDICT
Q2 Holdings, Inc. (QTWO) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $48.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $50.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $53.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $57.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $70.52 | Below threshold | -20.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $59.27 | +23.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $23.44 | -51.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $20.77 | -56.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $58.44 | +21.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 77 industry peers | $15.63 | -67.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $55.88 | +16.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $40.94 | -14.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $39.08 | -18.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $21.98 | -54.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $58.86 | +22.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $94.80 | +97.0% | 100% | 79 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 50× | 55× | 60× (Current) | 65× | 70× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $42 | $46 | $50 | $54 | $58 |
| Conservative (7%) | $43 | $47 | $51 | $55 | $60 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $44 | $48 | $53 | $57 | $62 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $45 | $50 | $54 | $59 | $64 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 238.04 | 63.89 | 24.14 | 818.55 | 335.27 |
| P/FFO | 128.76 | 128.44 | 58.01 | 199.83 | 70.91 |
| P/AFFO | 166.73 | 180.30 | 63.34 | 256.54 | 97.31 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.01 | 7.86 | 3.67 | 11.68 | 2.80 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.37 | 8.69 | 2.72 | 16.34 | 4.71 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates QTWO's fair value at $94.80 vs the current price of $48.12, implying +97.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $94.80 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $34.62 (P10) to $179.29 (P90), with a median of $85.89.
QTWO's current P/E of 60.1x compares to the industry median of 26.0x (71 peers in the group). This represents a +131.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
32 analysts cover QTWO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $76.40 (range: $67.00 — $90.00), implying +58.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (23), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for QTWO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.