MODEL VERDICT
QVC Group Inc. (QVCGB)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $2.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $10.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $10.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 2, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $10.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Mar 27, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $10.00 | Pending | -94.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $1772.31 | +88515.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $14.02 | +601.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $7.16 | +258.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $46.45 | +2222.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $56.64 | +2732.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $15.27 | +663.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $1141.23 | +56961.3% | 100% | 38 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates QVCGB's fair value at $1141.23 vs the current price of $2.00, implying +56961.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 38/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $1141.23 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $577.94 (P10) to $868.23 (P90), with a median of $719.91.
QVCGB's current P/E of -0.6x compares to the industry median of 27.7x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -102.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for QVCGB.
The model confidence score is 38/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows weak agreement across inputs — interpret with caution.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for QVCGB.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.