MODEL VERDICT
Wayfair Inc. (W) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $76.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $81.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $82.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $90.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $115.93 | Below threshold | -20.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 43 analyst estimates | $61.84 | -19.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 38 industry peers | $82.62 | +8.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 39 industry peers | $59.70 | -21.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 51 industry peers | $136.35 | +78.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 51 industry peers | $129.38 | +69.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 39 industry peers | $85.88 | +12.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $85.77 | +12.4% | 100% | 72 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 60.89 | 48.69 | 37.04 | 96.95 | 31.77 |
| P/FCF | 66.65 | 46.94 | 20.73 | 151.98 | 60.19 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.90 | 0.91 | 0.29 | 1.59 | 0.49 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates W's fair value at $85.77 vs the current price of $76.33, implying +12.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 72/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $85.77 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $51.78 (P10) to $106.78 (P90), with a median of $76.90.
W's current P/E of -31.5x compares to the industry median of 29.3x (36 peers in the group). This represents a -207.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
57 analysts cover W with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $107.50 (range: $75.00 — $140.00), implying +40.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (29), Hold (24), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 72/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for W.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.