MODEL VERDICT
Wayfair Inc. (W)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $65.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $78.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $81.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $76.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $71.68 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $57.32 | -12.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $16.34 | -75.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $74.75 | +14.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $56.16 | -14.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $167.78 | +156.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $167.93 | +156.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $81.60 | +24.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $80.10 | +22.3% | 100% | 70 | UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 60.89 | 48.69 | 37.04 | 96.95 | 31.77 |
| P/FCF | 66.65 | 46.94 | 20.73 | 151.98 | 60.19 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.90 | 0.91 | 0.29 | 1.59 | 0.49 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates W's fair value at $80.10 vs the current price of $65.47, implying +22.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $80.10 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $65.31 (P10) to $119.94 (P90), with a median of $90.20.
W's current P/E of -27.1x compares to the industry median of 29.3x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -192.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
57 analysts cover W with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $100.07 (range: $75.00 — $125.00), implying +52.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (29), Hold (24), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for W.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.