MODEL VERDICT
Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. (RGR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $43.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $42.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $42.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.56 | $42.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $40.96 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $129.45 | +199.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $1.63 | -96.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $37.66 | -12.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 1 industry peers | $39.25 | -9.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 1 industry peers | $63.93 | +48.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $45.86 | +6.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 2 industry peers | $60.82 | +40.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $63.42 | +46.9% | 100% | 51 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 43× | 47× | 51× (Current) | 55× | 59× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $37 | $40 | $44 | $47 | $51 |
| Conservative (5%) | $38 | $41 | $45 | $49 | $52 |
| Base Case (-30.3%) | $25 | $28 | $30 | $32 | $35 |
| Bull Case (-41%) | $21 | $23 | $25 | $27 | $29 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.89 | 16.77 | 7.75 | 38.87 | 10.72 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.81 | 11.44 | 5.75 | 18.58 | 4.99 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.84 | 9.23 | 5.18 | 11.69 | 2.73 |
| P/FCF | 21.19 | 17.90 | 8.41 | 44.71 | 13.60 |
| P/FFO | 10.16 | 10.63 | 6.63 | 13.57 | 2.57 |
| P/TBV | 2.89 | 2.95 | 1.83 | 4.59 | 0.94 |
| P/AFFO | 14.14 | 13.55 | 7.88 | 20.23 | 4.89 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.81 | 2.84 | 1.83 | 4.37 | 0.88 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.64 | 1.58 | 1.14 | 2.04 | 0.35 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates RGR's fair value at $63.42 vs the current price of $43.16, implying +46.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 51/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $63.42 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $43.63 (P10) to $65.25 (P90), with a median of $54.05.
RGR's current P/E of 51.4x compares to the industry median of 44.8x (3 peers in the group). This represents a +14.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.9x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
12 analysts cover RGR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (5), Hold (4), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 51/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: RGR trades at the 5680th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (18.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for RGR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.