MODEL VERDICT
Rogers Corporation (ROG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $134.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $131.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $122.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $117.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $117.96 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $132.47 | -1.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $60.84 | -54.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $198.74 | +47.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $119.85 | -10.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $229.69 | +70.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $285.30 | +112.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $266.34 | +98.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $153.18 | +13.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $129.78 | -3.5% | 100% | 78 | FAIRLY VALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 48.45 | 48.47 | 19.40 | 72.58 | 17.58 |
| EV/EBIT | 32.55 | 33.80 | 20.22 | 40.35 | 6.77 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.08 | 17.51 | 11.85 | 31.82 | 6.84 |
| P/FCF | 57.54 | 26.62 | 21.27 | 178.10 | 59.50 |
| P/FFO | 24.00 | 24.06 | 13.92 | 34.01 | 6.39 |
| P/TBV | 4.17 | 3.30 | 2.12 | 9.00 | 2.33 |
| P/AFFO | 57.93 | 50.75 | 35.85 | 97.42 | 21.34 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.39 | 1.96 | 1.41 | 4.60 | 1.10 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.02 | 2.60 | 2.08 | 5.52 | 1.21 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates ROG's fair value at $129.78 vs the current price of $134.44, implying -3.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $129.78 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $122.90 (P10) to $173.63 (P90), with a median of $145.17.
ROG's current P/E of -40.0x compares to the industry median of 48.4x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -182.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 48.4x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
12 analysts cover ROG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $150.00 (range: $150.00 — $150.00), implying +11.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ROG.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.