MODEL VERDICT
RXO, Inc. (RXO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $19.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $19.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $18.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $16.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $16.06 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $3.08 | -84.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $54.62 | +178.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $62.08 | +216.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $22.78 | +16.3% | 100% | 36 | UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 65.74 | 49.72 | 20.50 | 126.98 | 55.02 |
| EV/EBITDA | 48.41 | 29.35 | 12.06 | 122.89 | 50.34 |
| P/FFO | 61.16 | 39.13 | 11.25 | 133.08 | 63.83 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.86 | 2.69 | 1.38 | 4.68 | 1.48 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.55 | 0.56 | 0.37 | 0.71 | 0.18 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates RXO's fair value at $22.78 vs the current price of $19.59, implying +16.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 36/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $22.78 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $10.96 (P10) to $32.46 (P90), with a median of $20.61.
RXO's current P/E of -33.2x compares to the industry median of 41.6x (8 peers in the group). This represents a -179.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
20 analysts cover RXO with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $16.00 (range: $11.00 — $20.00), implying -18.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (14), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 36/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows weak agreement across inputs — interpret with caution.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for RXO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.