MODEL VERDICT
Sabre Corporation (SABR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $1.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $1.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $1.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $1.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $1.52 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $4.95 | +167.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $37.67 | +1936.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $6.00 | +224.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $10.03 | +442.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $19.02 | +928.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $35.68 | +1828.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $14.51 | +684.4% | 100% | 57 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 4× | 5× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $6 | $6 | $6 | $6 | $7 |
| Conservative (7%) | $6 | $6 | $6 | $6 | $7 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $6 | $6 | $6 | $6 | $7 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $6 | $6 | $6 | $6 | $8 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 20.98 | 25.28 | 11.96 | 25.72 | 7.82 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.09 | 12.85 | 9.19 | 29.45 | 9.12 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.11 | 0.80 | 0.19 | 2.61 | 0.86 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 13 valuation metrics, the model estimates SABR's fair value at $14.51 vs the current price of $1.85, implying +684.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 57/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $14.51 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13.96 (P10) to $22.12 (P90), with a median of $17.92.
SABR's current P/E of 1.4x compares to the industry median of 28.1x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -95.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
23 analysts cover SABR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $2.00 (range: $2.00 — $2.00), implying +8.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (8), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 57/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SABR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.