MODEL VERDICT
Saratoga Investment Corp 8.50% (SAZ)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $25.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $25.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $25.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $25.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $25.40 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $19.15 | -25.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $24.05 | -6.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 12 bank peers | $24.05 | -6.3% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $23.53 | -8.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $19.15 | -25.4% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $23.53 | -8.3% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $24.34 | -5.2% | 100% | 73 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $19 | $23 | $27 | $31 | $35 |
| Conservative (5%) | $19 | $23 | $28 | $32 | $36 |
| Base Case (-19.5%) | $15 | $18 | $21 | $24 | $28 |
| Bull Case (-26%) | $13 | $16 | $19 | $22 | $25 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.30 | 12.55 | 12.38 | 35.96 | 13.56 |
| EV/EBIT | 53.99 | 35.52 | 30.86 | 95.60 | 36.11 |
| EV/EBITDA | 53.99 | 35.52 | 30.86 | 95.60 | 36.11 |
| P/TBV | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.87 | 0.90 | 0.01 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.87 | 0.90 | 0.01 |
| Div Yield | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.25 | 4.37 | 3.75 | 4.65 | 0.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates SAZ's fair value at $24.34 vs the current price of $25.67, implying -5.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $24.34 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $20.98 (P10) to $30.56 (P90), with a median of $25.73.
SAZ's current P/E of 12.7x compares to the industry median of 9.5x (12 peers in the group). This represents a +34.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.3x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
No analyst coverage data is available for SAZ.
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SAZ's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (42.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 12500.0% to approximately $58. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.