MODEL VERDICT
Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (SBH) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $16.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $15.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $16.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $15.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $15.75 | Pending | +7.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 43 analyst estimates | $43.87 | +173.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 40 industry peers | $36.79 | +128.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 36 industry peers | $55.36 | +244.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 38 industry peers | $38.60 | +140.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 40 industry peers | $42.10 | +162.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 39 industry peers | $27.27 | +69.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 14 industry peers | $19.47 | +21.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 51 industry peers | $45.78 | +184.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 51 industry peers | $49.18 | +206.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 36 industry peers | $55.36 | +244.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 39 industry peers | $40.13 | +149.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $33.64 | +109.4% | 100% | 89 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $10 | $14 | $18 | $22 | $26 |
| Conservative (9%) | $10 | $14 | $19 | $23 | $27 |
| Base Case (13.8%) | $11 | $15 | $19 | $24 | $28 |
| Bull Case (19%) | $11 | $16 | $20 | $25 | $29 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.61 | 7.86 | 7.31 | 13.17 | 2.07 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.07 | 8.83 | 7.74 | 12.19 | 1.46 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.38 | 7.01 | 6.64 | 9.10 | 0.90 |
| P/FCF | 10.21 | 8.57 | 4.73 | 24.12 | 6.39 |
| P/FFO | 5.42 | 5.06 | 4.25 | 6.80 | 0.87 |
| P/AFFO | 8.44 | 7.64 | 6.90 | 13.70 | 2.35 |
| P/B Ratio | 19.26 | 3.78 | 1.78 | 96.83 | 38.07 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.43 | 0.40 | 0.30 | 0.57 | 0.10 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates SBH's fair value at $33.64 vs the current price of $16.07, implying +109.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $33.64 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $28.97 (P10) to $41.30 (P90), with a median of $34.99.
SBH's current P/E of 8.5x compares to the industry median of 29.3x (36 peers in the group). This represents a -71.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.6x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
30 analysts cover SBH with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $17.75 (range: $16.00 — $20.00), implying +10.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (17), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SBH's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9770.0% to approximately $32. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.