Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$16.07
→
Intrinsic$24.61
+53%
$12.48$24.61$47.67
Market implies 8% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests SBH could have 53% upside at 14% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $16, the market prices in 8% annual cash flow growth — a moderate expectation aligned with historical trends (14%).
Range: Bear $12 → Bull $48. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 10% | 12% | 14% | 16% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $32 | $36 | $41 | $45 |
| 10% | $19 | $22 | $25 | $28 |
| 12% | $11 | $14 | $16 | $18 |
| 14% | $7 | $8 | $10 | $12 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($48) offers 197% upside at 17% growth, 9% discount
- 35% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (8%) ≤ historical CAGR (14%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($12) implies 22% downside at 11% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$196.53M
Year 2$223.66M
Year 3$254.54M
Year 4$289.68M
Year 5$329.67M
Terminal$4.85B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate13.8%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$172.69MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.