MODEL VERDICT
Semtech Corporation (SMTC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $107.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $109.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $107.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $93.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $85.22 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $116.05 | +7.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $111.56 | +3.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $42.42 | -60.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $85.33 | -20.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $35.33 | -67.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $128.04 | +18.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $139.33 | +29.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $41.18 | -61.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $91.65 | -15.0% | 100% | 74 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 69.27 | 57.50 | 14.94 | 153.38 | 57.30 |
| EV/EBIT | 55.18 | 58.56 | 12.49 | 93.68 | 37.29 |
| EV/EBITDA | 44.34 | 51.11 | 10.01 | 104.04 | 32.43 |
| P/FCF | 47.69 | 36.31 | 10.63 | 120.51 | 42.18 |
| P/FFO | 37.67 | 30.37 | 11.69 | 68.02 | 26.88 |
| P/TBV | 12.66 | 14.10 | 4.95 | 17.48 | 5.58 |
| P/AFFO | 53.88 | 35.44 | 13.96 | 100.42 | 42.80 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.84 | 6.25 | 1.86 | 9.73 | 3.18 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.61 | 5.78 | 1.85 | 9.87 | 2.99 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates SMTC's fair value at $91.65 vs the current price of $107.81, implying -15.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $91.65 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $67.99 (P10) to $105.04 (P90), with a median of $86.44.
SMTC's current P/E of -47.7x compares to the industry median of 110.4x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -143.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 69.3x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
32 analysts cover SMTC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $87.44 (range: $67.00 — $110.00), implying -18.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (27), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SMTC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.