MODEL VERDICT
Spero Therapeutics, Inc. (SPRO) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 69 analyst estimates | $15.05 | +537.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 182 industry peers | $6.86 | +190.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 184 industry peers | $5.60 | +137.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $13.91 | +489.6% | 100% | 58 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 2.12 | 1.21 | 0.73 | 5.60 | 1.80 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.12 | 1.21 | 0.73 | 5.60 | 1.80 |
| P/S Ratio | 35.05 | 9.63 | 0.75 | 161.12 | 58.08 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates SPRO's fair value at $13.91 vs the current price of $2.36, implying +489.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 58/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $13.91 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $7.78 (P10) to $20.24 (P90), with a median of $13.94.
SPRO's current P/E of -1.9x compares to the industry median of 23.5x (45 peers in the group). This represents a -107.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover SPRO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (5), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 58/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SPRO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.