MODEL VERDICT
Scully Royalty Ltd. (SRL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 52 industry peers | $66.87 | +643.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 48 bank peers | $83.38 | +827.5% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $45.11 | +401.8% | 100% | 63 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 62.75 | 41.20 | 0.58 | 168.00 | 75.29 |
| EV/EBIT | 3.52 | 3.96 | 0.01 | 6.14 | 2.62 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.25 | 4.31 | 0.06 | 48.66 | 17.22 |
| P/FFO | 5.65 | 6.17 | 0.55 | 9.70 | 3.86 |
| P/TBV | 0.31 | 0.34 | 0.17 | 0.44 | 0.11 |
| P/AFFO | 5.82 | 6.42 | 0.55 | 9.89 | 3.97 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.31 | 0.34 | 0.17 | 0.44 | 0.11 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.72 | 1.65 | 0.47 | 3.88 | 1.07 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 6 valuation metrics, the model estimates SRL's fair value at $45.11 vs the current price of $8.99, implying +401.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $45.11 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $21.56 (P10) to $67.08 (P90), with a median of $43.44.
SRL's current P/E of -8.8x compares to the industry median of 23.5x (41 peers in the group). This represents a -137.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 62.7x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for SRL.
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SRL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.