MODEL VERDICT
StoneCo Ltd. (STNE) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $16.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $17.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $16.86 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $17.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $14.89 | Pending | +20.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 71 analyst estimates | $177.05 | +953.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $19.37 | +15.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $38.82 | +131.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $142.95 | +750.9% | 100% | 65 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.74 | 15.26 | 3.61 | 28.84 | 10.39 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.43 | 6.09 | 1.54 | 19.03 | 6.66 |
| EV/EBITDA | 124.43 | 99.69 | 64.66 | 233.69 | 79.27 |
| P/FCF | 6.16 | 3.07 | 2.26 | 13.16 | 6.08 |
| P/FFO | 11.71 | 11.80 | 2.37 | 22.02 | 7.01 |
| P/TBV | 1.97 | 0.98 | 0.38 | 7.95 | 2.67 |
| P/AFFO | 20.22 | 20.18 | 3.40 | 37.12 | 13.85 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.61 | 0.39 | 0.20 | 7.45 | 2.63 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.28 | 1.86 | 0.41 | 15.96 | 5.99 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates STNE's fair value at $142.95 vs the current price of $16.80, implying +750.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 65/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $142.95 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $68.79 (P10) to $212.81 (P90), with a median of $140.32.
STNE's current P/E of -17.3x compares to the industry median of 23.0x (45 peers in the group). This represents a -175.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.7x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
20 analysts cover STNE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $20.38 (range: $19.00 — $22.00), implying +21.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (6), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 65/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for STNE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.