MODEL VERDICT
Target Hospitality Corp. (TH)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $14.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $14.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $14.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $14.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $14.46 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $4.28 | -70.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $1.10 | -92.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $1.91 | -87.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $11.07 | -24.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $8.82 | -39.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $1.16 | -92.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $3.78 | -74.3% | 100% | 63 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.74 | 17.13 | 6.24 | 38.46 | 13.77 |
| EV/EBIT | 45.47 | 14.60 | 4.51 | 209.40 | 80.51 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.45 | 7.50 | 3.46 | 19.34 | 5.06 |
| P/FCF | 25.21 | 8.63 | 4.38 | 113.02 | 43.10 |
| P/FFO | 8.96 | 6.67 | 3.75 | 21.98 | 6.42 |
| P/TBV | 6.82 | 3.40 | 2.58 | 17.90 | 7.40 |
| P/AFFO | 30.78 | 11.29 | 5.29 | 114.67 | 47.16 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.38 | 2.72 | 1.53 | 7.54 | 2.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.88 | 1.82 | 0.67 | 3.02 | 0.84 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates TH's fair value at $3.78 vs the current price of $14.68, implying -74.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 63/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $3.78 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2.96 (P10) to $4.53 (P90), with a median of $3.70.
TH's current P/E of -39.7x compares to the industry median of 17.4x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -328.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.7x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
6 analysts cover TH with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $14.50 (range: $11.00 — $18.00), implying -1.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 63/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for TH.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.