MODEL VERDICT
CEVA, Inc. (CEVA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $32.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $28.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $23.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $22.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $20.59 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $19.62 | -39.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $0.74 | -97.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $1.91 | -94.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $36.68 | +13.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $37.49 | +16.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $0.95 | -97.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $15.29 | -52.6% | 100% | 57 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8625.49 | 2543.53 | 866.27 | 22466.67 | 12016.11 |
| EV/EBIT | 219.77 | 228.72 | 101.72 | 335.06 | 104.45 |
| EV/EBITDA | 131.27 | 163.06 | 50.67 | 196.41 | 66.22 |
| P/FCF | 378.16 | 149.14 | 42.58 | 1443.78 | 597.96 |
| P/FFO | 161.78 | 124.91 | 105.07 | 292.23 | 87.95 |
| P/TBV | 3.63 | 3.22 | 2.53 | 5.37 | 1.15 |
| P/AFFO | 835.18 | 327.79 | 193.79 | 1983.95 | 997.12 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.72 | 2.40 | 2.02 | 3.86 | 0.75 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.07 | 6.91 | 4.92 | 10.03 | 1.80 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates CEVA's fair value at $15.29 vs the current price of $32.28, implying -52.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 57/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $15.29 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.38 (P10) to $30.80 (P90), with a median of $23.05.
CEVA's current P/E of -87.2x compares to the industry median of 25.8x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -438.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8625.5x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
23 analysts cover CEVA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $29.33 (range: $28.00 — $30.00), implying -9.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 57/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CEVA.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.