Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP)
Valuation Overview•Is Tompkins Financial Corporation Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount across both intrinsic cash flow and relative peer multiples, indicating a strong margin of safety.
Moderate quality score of 57/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain cautious, with consensus price targets indicating limited room for upside expansion.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant solvency concerns.
Wall Street is cautious, forecasting potential downside. This is paired with healthy capital returns, anchored by a strong dividend yield, though free cash flow coverage appears tight.
TMP demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company maintains stable top-line performance paired with highly explosive earnings growth (24.0% EPS 3Y CAGR). This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 38.8% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $226.7M | +34.1% | — | — | +8.4% | |
| EBITDA | $139.7M | — | +27.0% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $96.2M | +127.3% | +23.7% | — | +10.7% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $6.70 | +126.2% | +24.0% | +16.7% | +11.3% | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$40.6M | -64.0% | -30.5% | -19.9% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 75.1% | 70.5% | 79.9% | 83.6% |
| Operating Margin | 38.8% | 21.5% | 26.9% | 29.2% |
| Net Margin | 27.8% | 15.8% | 20.3% | 21.6% |
| FCF Margin | 5.6% | 17.7% | 23.9% | 25.1% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $1.71 | $1.82 | +6.4% | ||
| Q1'26 | $1.76 | $1.78 | +1.1% | ||
| Q4'25 | $1.70 | $1.65 | -2.9% | ||
| Q3'25 | $1.43 | $1.50 | +4.9% | ||
| Q2'25 | $1.31 | $1.37 | +4.6% | ||
| Q1'25 | $1.16 | $1.37 | +18.1% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.21 | $1.30 | +7.4% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.90 | $1.10 | +22.2% |
Total return is +52.9% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +27.9%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +25.0% | +15.7% | — |
| 1Y | +52.9% | +27.9% | +4.3% |
| 3YCAGR | +18.0% | -2.1% | +12.7% |
| 5YCAGR | +5.3% | -8.1% | +15.5% |
| 10YCAGR | +5.2% | -8.3% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP) valuation, health, and returns.
Tompkins Financial Corporation is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +37.9% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $123.16)
Tompkins Financial Corporation has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $123.16 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $116.06 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $74.00 (implying -17.1% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Tompkins Financial Corporation displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 57/100, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 10.9%.
Tompkins Financial Corporation pays a 2.8% dividend yield, covered by a 22% payout ratio with 20 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.2% buyback yield.
Tompkins Financial Corporation's current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +34.1% 1Y revenue growth and +126.2% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of N/A.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 4 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 67% of recent quarters with a 2-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -17.1% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Tompkins Financial Corporation include: -13.7% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.83x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.