Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP) Price Target Analysis
Updated Jun 18, 2026
Analyst Rating: Hold
Based on 4 analysts17.1% Above Target
TMP trades 17.1% above Wall Street's consensus target of $74.00.
Current Price$89.30
Average Target$74.00
Low$74.00
Median$74.00
High$74.00
Analyst Target Range
Forward P/E11.9x
(Value)
PEG Ratio0.71
(Undervalued)
Implied Growth-32.9%
(Declining)
Analyst Spread0.0%
(High Agreement)
Price Forecast (1 Year)
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
Consensus Scenario Assumptions
The base valuation assumes TMP achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 11.9x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 4 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
TMP Price Target Analysis
Updated June 22, 2026As of June 22, 2026, Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $74.00, based on estimates from 4 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $89.30, this represents a potential downside of -17.1%. The company has a market capitalization of $1.29B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $74.00 to a high of $74.00, representing a 0% spread in expectations. The median target of $74.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 1 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,3 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The bearish sentiment suggests caution about the stock at current levels.
From a valuation perspective, TMP trades at a trailing P/E of 7.9x and forward P/E of 11.9x. The forward PEG ratio of 0.71 suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow -32.9% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $99.88, with bear and bull scenarios of $62.92 and $131.60 respectively. Model confidence stands at 45/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Financial Services stocks.
Analyst Sentiment Comparison
Industry Peer AnalysisAvg Peer Upside
+1.8%
Industry Consensus
Avg Forward P/E
12.0x
(Value)
Peers with Coverage
8 / 10
Active Analyst Tracking
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CZWICitizens Community Bancorp, Inc. | $205M | $21.34 | — | — | Buy | 11.7x | 2 |
 NBTBNBT Bancorp Inc. | $2.4B | $46.68 | $46.00 | -1.5% | Hold | 11.2x | 10 |
 CNOBConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. | $1.6B | $32.45 | $34.00 | +4.8% | Buy | 9.9x | 11 |
 TRSTTrustCo Bank Corp NY | $925M | $52.24 | — | — | Hold | 18.2x | 3 |
 FISIFinancial Institutions, Inc. | $735M | $37.36 | $36.00 | -3.6% | Hold | 9.3x | 6 |
 AMTBAmerant Bancorp Inc. | $1000M | $23.81 | $24.00 | +1.7% | Hold | 13.1x | 7 |
 WSBCWesBanco, Inc. | $3.5B | $36.29 | $41.00 | +13.0% | Buy | 10.1x | 16 |
 CTBICommunity Trust Bancorp, Inc. | $1.2B | $68.35 | $76.00 | +11.2% | Hold | 11.1x | 6 |
 CHMGChemung Financial Corporation | $341M | $70.97 | $50.00 | -29.5% | Hold | 9.9x | 7 |
 GBCIGlacier Bancorp, Inc. | $6.3B | $48.43 | $57.33 | +18.4% | Buy | 15.7x | 14 |
TMP — Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying TMP stock.
What is the TMP stock price target for 2026?
TMP's consensus price target is $74, -17.1% below the current price of $89.3. The 4 analysts tracking TMP see downside risk at present valuations.
Is TMP a buy, sell, or hold?
TMP has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 4 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 3 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $74 implies -17.1% downside from current levels.
Is TMP stock overvalued or undervalued?
With a forward P/E of 11.8671x, TMP trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $74 implies -17.1% move, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.
How high can TMP stock go?
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $74 for TMP, while the most conservative target is $74. The consensus of $74 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $132 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
How many analysts cover TMP stock?
TMP is lightly followed, with 4 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 1 have Buy ratings, 3 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
What is the TMP stock forecast?
The 12-month TMP stock forecast based on 4 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $74, with estimates ranging from $74 (bear case) to $74 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $100, with bear/bull scenarios of $63/$132.
What is TMP's fair value based on fundamentals?
Our quantitative valuation model calculates TMP's fair value at $100 (base case), with a bear case of $63 and bull case of $132. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 45/100.
What is TMP's forward P/E ratio?
TMP trades at a forward P/E ratio of 11.9x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 7.9x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Should I buy TMP stock?
Analysts are cautious on TMP, with 0 Sell ratings and a price target of $74 (-17.1% from current price). The "Hold" consensus suggests careful evaluation before buying. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Why do TMP price targets vary so much?
TMP analyst price targets range from $74 to $74, a 0% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $74 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $63-$132 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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