TMP trades 5.6% below Wall Street's consensus target of $104.00.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes TMP achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 12.6x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 4 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of September 22, 2026, Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $104.00, based on estimates from 4 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $98.48, this represents a potential upside of +5.6%. The company has a market capitalization of $1.42B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $104.00 to a high of $104.00, representing a 0% spread in expectations. The median target of $104.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 1 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,3 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The bearish sentiment suggests caution about the stock at current levels.
From a valuation perspective, TMP trades at a trailing P/E of 8.8x and forward P/E of 12.6x. The forward PEG ratio of 0.76 suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to its growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow -36.1% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $99.88, with bear and bull scenarios of $62.92 and $131.60 respectively. Model confidence stands at 45/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CZWICitizens Community Bancorp, Inc. | $206M | $21.38 | $24.00 | +12.3% | Buy | 15.0x | 3 |
 NBTBNBT Bancorp Inc. | $2.7B | $51.22 | $56.67 | +10.6% | Hold | 12.3x | 10 |
 CNOBConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. | $1.6B | $31.52 | $34.00 | +7.9% | Buy | 9.7x | 11 |
 TRSTTrustCo Bank Corp NY | $959M | $56.34 | — | — | Hold | 19.6x | 3 |
 FISIFinancial Institutions, Inc. | $794M | $40.33 | $45.00 | +11.6% | Hold | 9.6x | 6 |
 AMTBAmerant Bancorp Inc. | $1.2B | $29.54 | $24.33 | -17.6% | Hold | 13.5x | 7 |
 WSBCWesBanco, Inc. | $3.7B | $39.10 | $44.33 | +13.4% | Hold | 10.9x | 16 |
 CTBICommunity Trust Bancorp, Inc. | $1.4B | $75.56 | $81.50 | +7.9% | Hold | 11.8x | 6 |
 CHMGChemung Financial Corporation | $397M | $82.38 | $87.00 | +5.6% | Hold | 10.8x | 7 |
 GBCIGlacier Bancorp, Inc. | $5.8B | $44.82 | $57.00 | +27.2% | Buy | 14.8x | 14 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying TMP stock.
The consensus price target for TMP is $104, close to the current price of $98.48 (5.6% implied move). Based on 4 analyst estimates, the stock appears fairly valued near current levels.
TMP has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 4 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 3 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $104 implies 5.6% upside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 12.6014x, TMP trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $104 implies 5.6% appreciation, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $104 for TMP, while the most conservative target is $104. The consensus of $104 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $132 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
TMP is lightly followed, with 4 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 1 have Buy ratings, 3 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month TMP stock forecast based on 4 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $104, with estimates ranging from $104 (bear case) to $104 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $100, with bear/bull scenarios of $63/$132.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates TMP's fair value at $100 (base case), with a bear case of $63 and bull case of $132. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 45/100.
TMP trades at a forward P/E ratio of 12.6x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 8.8x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
TMP appears fairly valued according to analysts, with a "Hold" rating and minimal upside to the $104 target. Consider your investment thesis and risk tolerance. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
TMP analyst price targets range from $104 to $104, a 0% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $104 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $63-$132 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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