Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP)
Estimates & Forecasts•Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
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TMP Price Targets Summary| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $10M | $71M | $161M | $159M | $208M | $270M | $316M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.66 | $4.97 | $11.24 | $10.96 | $14.27 | $18.47 | $21.50 |
| YoY Growth | — | +645.4% | +127.3% | -1.5% | +30.9% | +30.0% | +17.0% |
| Net Margin | 3.1% | 16.4% | 27.8% | 22.3% | 22.0% | 21.4% | 21.3% |
USD · TMP · Proprietary Model| Metric | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $579M | $713M | $942M | $1.3B | $1.5B |
| Net Income | $161M | $159M | $208M | $270M | $316M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $11.24 | $10.96 | $14.27 | $18.47 | $21.50 |
| Free Cash Flow | $32M | $307M | $404M | $540M | $631M |
Treat point estimates cautiously; use wider scenario ranges and position sizing discipline.
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying TMP stock.
Tompkins Financial Corporation's projected EPS for the next fiscal year is $10.96. This estimate blends our quantitative model with Wall Street analyst consensus and carries a confidence score of 41/100. The model factors in revenue trajectory, margin path, and share buyback trends to arrive at this figure.
Our scenario-based model produces three price targets for Tompkins Financial Corporation: Bear case $12, Base case $109, and Bull case $118. These targets are derived by applying the median historical P/E ratio to forward EPS estimates under each growth scenario. They are not buy/sell recommendations.
Tompkins Financial Corporation's projected revenue growth for the next fiscal year is 23.1%, reaching approximately $0.7B in total revenue. Growth estimates are probability-weighted and blend analyst consensus with our CAGR extrapolation model. Outer years (FY+3, FY+4) fade toward industry median growth rates.
Accuracy depends on several measurable factors. Our model confidence score of 41/100 is computed from revenue predictability (25% weight), margin stability (20%), historical earnings beat rate (20%), data depth (15%), analyst coverage (10%), and model-consensus agreement (10%). Contracting margins add uncertainty to forward projections. No forecast model is perfect — always cross-reference with your own analysis.
Tompkins Financial Corporation's forward operating margin is estimated at 29.1% for the next fiscal year. The margin trend is currently "contracting". Our model tracks margin mean-reversion patterns and adjusts for sector-specific cost dynamics. Operating leverage is a key driver of EPS growth beyond top-line revenue expansion.
The v2 model uses a multi-step process: (1) Revenue is projected via blended CAGR with probability weighting, (2) Operating and net margins follow a mean-reversion path calibrated to sector norms, (3) EPS is derived from net income divided by projected diluted shares (accounting for buyback trends), (4) For FY+1 and FY+2, estimates are blended with analyst consensus based on coverage depth, (5) Price targets apply median historical P/E to forward EPS under bear/base/bull growth scenarios. All inputs are from public filings and third-party data providers.
The bear case ($12) assumes P25 revenue growth, worst-case margins, and multiple compression. Key risks include: unexpected margin contraction, revenue deceleration below model floor, regulatory headwinds, macro deterioration, or competitive disruption. A confidence score below 60 suggests higher estimate volatility. Always size positions according to the full scenario range, not just the base case.
Our model is above Wall Street consensus with a 45.6% gap. For FY+1, analyst estimates blend with our model at 15% analyst weight. By FY+3 and FY+4, estimates are purely model-driven as analyst coverage thins out at longer horizons.