MODEL VERDICT
TOYO Co., Ltd. (TOYO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $12.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $11.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $12.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $11.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $11.35 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $72.31 | +468.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $7.57 | -40.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $32.51 | +155.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $1.59 | -87.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $3.53 | -72.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $0.14 | -98.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $7.84 | -38.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $8.96 | -29.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $30.99 | +143.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $1.48 | -88.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $34.75 | +173.4% | 100% | 50 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $9 | $11 | $14 | $16 | $18 |
| Conservative (7%) | $10 | $12 | $14 | $16 | $18 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $10 | $12 | $14 | $16 | $19 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $10 | $12 | $15 | $17 | $19 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates TOYO's fair value at $34.75 vs the current price of $12.71, implying +173.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 50/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $34.75 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $19.15 (P10) to $28.53 (P90), with a median of $23.77.
TOYO's current P/E of 12.7x compares to the industry median of 32.5x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -60.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for TOYO.
The model confidence score is 50/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TOYO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.9σ, meaning margins are 1.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2710.0% to approximately $9. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.